Net migration to the UK in 2024 was significantly lower than previously estimated, according to newly revised figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
The ONS now puts net migration—the difference between arrivals and departures—at 345,000, a reduction of 86,000 from its earlier estimate. The downward revision is largely driven by new evidence suggesting that far more British nationals emigrated last year than initially recorded, with around 100,000 fewer Britons living in the UK than first thought.
The updated methodology also shows migration peaked higher than previously believed. Between April 2022 and March 2023, migration added 944,000 people to the UK population, up from the earlier estimate of 906,000.
When pressed over the peak, which occurred under Rishi Sunak’s Conservative government, current Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch said ministers had acted quickly once the figures emerged. “We recognise immigration was too high,” she said, blaming “bureaucrats” for mismanaging the border.
Successive Conservative administrations promised to reduce migration, while Labour argued during the 2024 election campaign that high migration discouraged investment in domestic skills. Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has since unveiled measures aimed at cutting net migration “significantly” over four years, including banning overseas recruitment of care workers, raising visa costs and tightening skilled-worker routes.
Despite the new revisions, the overall picture for the post-pandemic period remains largely unchanged. Net migration between 2021 and 2024 is now estimated at 2.5 million, down slightly from 2.6 million.
The ONS has been overhauling its migration measurement system since 2020. Pre-pandemic estimates relied on surveys of travellers at ports and airports, a method that analysts say significantly underestimated the movement of British nationals. The new approach tracks how often individuals appear in tax and benefits data, which officials say gives a more accurate real-time picture of who is actively living in the UK.
Using that method, the ONS now estimates that 257,000 Britons left the country in 2024, while 143,000 returned—equating to net emigration of 114,000, far above the initial estimate of 17,000. But experts caution the figures remain provisional, noting that tax-record-based measures can misclassify people who stay in the UK but drop out of the system.
The ONS has already abandoned this approach for measuring EU migration, instead relying on visa and border data from the Home Office. Under the new system, the estimated decline in the EU-born population in 2024 has been revised from 96,000 to 69,000.
Why was migration rising?
Most of the recent increase has been linked to post-Brexit policy changes introduced under Boris Johnson’s government. These include a surge in work visas—especially in health and social care—growth in student visas, and new humanitarian routes for people fleeing Ukraine, Hong Kong and Afghanistan.
Small-boat crossings have also continued to rise, with 39,075 people crossing the Channel so far this year.
Both Labour and Conservative governments have introduced measures aiming to curb migration. Former prime minister Rishi Sunak restricted the rights of students and care workers to bring dependants to the UK.
On Monday, Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood unveiled new reforms to the asylum system, warning that it was “out of control and unfair.” Addressing MPs, she said failing to act risked fuelling public anger and division. Photo by EWR, Wikimedia commons.
