Australia’s domestic intelligence agency has raised the alarm over a potential wave of foreign-directed violence on Australian soil.
Mike Burgess, head of the Australian Security Intelligence Organisation (ASIO), told the Lowy Institute on Nov 4 that “at least three” countries could attempt to assassinate perceived opponents in Australia. He did not identify the nations, sparking widespread speculation.
Mr Burgess has delivered annual threat assessments since 2020 and frequently speaks publicly to highlight risks such as cyberattacks, foreign interference, terrorism, and espionage. His latest warning adds assassination plots to the list, underscoring growing concerns about foreign influence and covert operations in Australia.
“In Australia, we always had an additional level of isolation from this kind of activity because of the sheer power of geography,” said Chris Taylor, a former national security official and head of the Statecraft and Intelligence Policy Centre at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute
Mr Burgess linked the threat to authoritarian regimes that use tactics ranging from “fake terrorist propaganda” to online incitement, which could spark attacks or violent protests. He added that ASIO sees a “realistic possibility” of foreign governments targeting dissidents in Australia, potentially through hired criminals to obscure state involvement, as Iran allegedly did in arson attacks in 2024.
Following the speech, analysts frequently speculated that India, Russia, and Iran were among the most likely countries referenced. Mr Taylor suggested the list could also include North Korea, with other nations like China, Rwanda, and Vietnam known for targeting dissidents abroad, though without recorded assassinations. Israel and the US, he noted, have targeted perceived threats abroad but not domestic dissidents.
ASIO’s warnings follow Canberra’s 2025 announcement that intelligence linked Iran to anti-Semitic arson attacks in Australia in 2024. Experts say foreign agencies increasingly exploit local criminals to carry out operations, reducing the need to deploy their own agents. Iran and Russia’s Wagner Group have been linked to overseas attacks, while India has faced accusations in Canada and the US over plots against Sikh separatists.
Australia itself has previously confronted foreign espionage. In 2020, a network of Indian spies was reportedly expelled for monitoring the diaspora, politicians, and a state police service—a revelation first publicly confirmed by Mr Burgess in 2021.
Russia has targeted opponents abroad, including the poisonings of Alexander Litvinenko in 2006 and Sergei Skripal in 2018. Mr Burgess noted Russian intelligence activity in Australia, including efforts to “covertly stoke and amplify division” through local propagandists and influencers.
However, some experts question the immediacy of the assassination threat. Professor Clive Williams, a former defence intelligence official, told The Straits Times he sees little likelihood of dissidents being killed in Australia. “Countries such as Iran and India would want to avoid potential repercussions. Russia hasn’t shown much interest here,” he said.
Despite skepticism, Mr Burgess’ speeches consistently reveal new foreign activity. In a Nov 12 address, he accused Chinese state-backed hackers of targeting Australia’s critical infrastructure and telecommunications networks.
Fears of foreign-orchestrated violence prompted the federal government to introduce legislation on Nov 6 targeting state-sponsored terrorism. The bill allows authorities to designate foreign government entities as sponsors of terrorism and criminalises support or engagement with such entities. The move followed ASIO intelligence implicating Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in ordering arson attacks.
Former Home Affairs chief Mike Pezzullo told Sky News that Burgess’ warnings represent “the tip of the tip of the iceberg.” He warned that capable state actors could use these tactics in coordinated campaigns capable of seriously affecting Australian society. Photo by Nick-D, Wikimedia commons.
